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The yield on the 10-year note finished July 17, 2026 at 4.55% while the 2-year note ended at 4.18%. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.
Artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency and private markets have dominated ETF headlines this year, but one of the industry's fiercest battles is unfolding in a far less glamorous corner of the market: cash.
The yield on the 10-year note finished July 10, 2026 at 4.56% while the 2-year note ended at 4.21%. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
The yield on the 10-year note finished July 2, 2026 at 4.49% while the 2-year note ended at 4.14%. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 26, 2026 at 4.38% while the 2-year note ended at 4.07%. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 18, 2026 at 4.46% while the 2-year note ended at 4.19%. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: U.S. stock indexes are significantly overvalued.
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