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Inflation accelerates alongside expectations of further interest rate hikes by central bank. Stockpiling efforts and greater global demand push input costs up at a significant pace.
One of the positive surprises about last year's recession is how little damage it inflicted on average household and corporate balance sheets in Europe. European household balance sheets also improved in aggregate in 2020, despite higher unemployment and shorter working hours. People stayed home more and spent less, while policy measures supported their income.
Firms have turned to the European repo market amid an increase in volatility in the financial markets, which has encouraged participants to review their approach to risk. The increased use of European repo led the BrokerTec platform to post some significant milestones in May 2021.
Brexit followed lengthy and difficult negotiations that resulted in a separation agreement stipulating that the UK would leave the single market and customs union but no tariffs on goods or quotas would be applied. The developments in the first month included some that were better than many expected, while a number of others were negative, including several that are of considerable concern.
Part of these savings was the result of households taking a more cautious stance against an increasingly uncertain economic backdrop (precautionary savings). Our estimates suggest that a large majority of the excess savings (around 85%) built-in 2020 were 'forced' owing to the impossibility to purchase certain goods or services as a result of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions.
Flash Eurozone PMI at 52.5 in March signals return to growth. Manufacturing expands at record pace, helping offset service sector weakness.
Positive changes since the Global Financial Crisis include fewer excesses and imbalances, the ECB's asset purchase programs, and the creation of the ESM and RRF. However, following the COVID-19 shock, six eurozone member states will have public debt to GDP ratios well in excess of 100% and achieving sustained reductions will be difficult.
European stocks have lagged developed market peers because the regional economy has been especially hard hit. Weakness in European stocks reflects the macroeconomic environment.
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