

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury BuyWrite Strategy ETF is rated a strong buy, offering attractive yield and downside protection versus traditional long-duration Treasury ETFs. TLTW's covered call strategy enhances income and cushions against rising yields, outperforming AGG and BND on a total return basis since July 2024. Current long-term Treasury yields provide a much healthier margin of safety than in 2021, with breakeven yield now nearly four times higher.

Over the past year, TLTW delivered a total return of roughly +10% compared to just under +5% for unhedged TLT. Newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh shocked markets with a hawkish tone on price stability and a simplified, data-dependent policy statement. The lack of explicit forward guidance and emerging market probabilities for 2026 rate hikes means fixed-income volatility is structural.

Prior to the start of the Iran War, President Donald Trump had been feuding with Jerome Powell about cutting interest rates.

The past two months have changed the calculus significantly for interest rate cuts this year, and we could even be looking at interest rate hikes.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite Strategy ETF is rated HOLD due to increased market uncertainty and capped upside potential. TLTW's buy-write structure limits gains to 2% monthly, making it (IMO) less attractive if TLT rallies sharply amid changing macro conditions. Current low implied volatility and shifting inflation expectations reduce (IMO) the competitiveness of option premiums at monthly roll.

Social Security pays retirees $2,000 a month on average, and private tuitions are even lower than that.

Talks of a “looming recession” have almost disappeared in the past two years due to the market rally looking unbeatable, but one is going to happen eventually, and it can take you by surprise.

A record number of retirees are deciding to retire every day as those born during the baby boom are turning into the retirement boom.
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