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Treasury yields climbed as Middle East tensions linger. These inverse Treasury ETFs could benefit if inflation and bond yields keep rising.
I initially rated ProShares Short 7-10 Year Treasury ETF a "Buy" in April 2022 due to rising rates; now, I rate it a "Sell". TBX had a 14.3% annualized return from April 2022 to October 2023, while iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF had an APR of -8.7%. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and rising national debt will put upward pressure on intermediate Treasuries in the longer-term.
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It generally takes a few years for changes in Federal Reserve rates to fully impact bond fund dividends. Bond funds are still benefitting from prior rate hikes. Perhaps by enough to cancel out any future rate cuts. By my estimations, and under current Fed guidance, most bond funds would only start to see declining dividends in 2025, at the earliest.
The Fed's decision not to raise rates was expected, but the reaction and interpretation of the decision is causing market movement. The Fed's statement indicated that there may be one more rate hike this year and no significant cuts next year, surprising many investors.
China's disappointing economic data and a surprise rate cut from the Central Bank dampen market sentiment. Long-term resistance on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.30% is a key level to watch.
ProShares Short 7-10 Year Treasury (TBX) ETF was profitable in 2022. Since 10/20/2022, TBX reversed to its normal behavior, showing continuous losses.
ProShares Short 7-10 Year Treasury (TBX) ETF aims to profit from declines in U.S. Treasury Bond prices. When yields rise, TBX aims to deliver positive returns, and the opposite is also true.
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Transcripts source: company-published earnings calls. Speaker attribution and formatting are processed in-app.