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Most respondents expect the BOJ to hike this week by 25 basis points, citing higher inflation, higher wages, and pressure from the U.S. government. A hike would signal an acceleration of the tightening cycle, faster than the six-month interval the Bank has been following.
Asian stocks diverged on Tuesday as South Korea's KOSPI struggled to shake off pressure on semiconductor shares while Japan's Nikkei 225 recovered, leaving the region's two most AI-sensitive markets moving in opposite directions ahead of key US and Japanese rate decisions. The KOSPI fell as much as 0.76% in early Seoul trading before paring most of the decline, extending a difficult stretch after Monday's sharp technology sell-off.
The artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor trades are garnering plenty of limelight this year and when investors evaluate those themes relating to ex-US equities, their attention largely shifts to China, South Korea and Taiwan. However, there's another Asia-Pacific dynamo on the AI front, and it's a familiar one: Japan.
South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei 225 led a broad Asian selloff on Friday as oil surged above $108 a barrel and US bond yields moved dangerously close to 5%, reviving concerns that inflation could force central banks to tighten further. The KOSPI dropped more than 2.5%, extending Thursday's weakness, while the Nikkei 225 tumbled about 2.8%.
The Bank of Japan is leaning toward raising its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point this month in response to upward price risks, while leaving open the possibility of accelerating the pace of hikes thereafter, according to people familiar with the matter. Bloomberg's Skylar Montgomery Koning has more.
The Nikkei 225 Index continued its strong downward spiral, reaching its lowest level since August 5 this year, and 11.80% from its highest point this year. This retreat happened as the US-Iran tensions and Japan's bond yields continued the bull run.
The recent coordinated effort by U.S. and Japanese monetary authorities to prop up the sagging yen understandably rattled global markets. While critics claim that the positive effects of the US/Japan “salvation” effort were short-lived, Japanese equities aren't worse for wear.
The overnight index swaps market is pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a rate increase at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting.