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While there is upward pressure on market rates in 2022, it's not coming from higher net supply. In fact, lower net supply can help to richen government bonds. On top of that, we should see flatter curves over the whole of 2022. We also anticipate some upward pressure on USD Libor.

The deficit spending that supported the economy in 2020 is showing up in hot inflation numbers in 2021. While I think the inflation numbers will get better in 2022, I do not believe they will get back to pre-pandemic levels because of owners' equivalent rents and wage gains in the CPI.

At the November FOMC meeting, the Fed officially announced that it would begin tapering its bond purchase program, starting in mid-November. When the Fed began tapering its QE3 program over the course of 2014, the coupon supply from the U.S. Treasury was stable, leading to an increase in net supply takedown from the private market.

Inflation expectation is a key metric the Fed watches closely. Housing costs - based on different measures of rents - account for one-third of CPI.

The commercial banking system now maintains the largest amount of reserve balances it has ever held, thanks to the effort of the Federal Reserve System. Because of this liquidity in the banks, short-term interest rates are threatening to fall into negative territory and have not because the Fed sold $1.2 trillion in reverse repurchase agreements.

While launches were strong last week, other ETF-related actions were few and far between.

"We do expect that as the economy reopens and hopefully picks up, we'll see inflation move up," Powell said on Thursday.

China reported fixed asset investment, and at -0.4%, it was in line with forecasts and shows sequential improvement.
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