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Alibaba is rated Buy with a $124 12-month target, reflecting a 24% upside from current levels but warranting a small position due to US investment ban risk. BABA's cloud segment is the primary growth driver, posting 45% revenue growth and margin improvement, while commerce profits remain stable amid fierce competition and regulatory scrutiny. Recent share dilution (3.7%) and negative free cash flow are manageable, but further capital raises are a risk if cloud growth slows and capex remains high.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited is down 41% from its 2025 peak as earnings recovery lags and capex expectations rise, but profitability recovery remains plausible. Q1 revenue grew 9% YoY, driven by China Quick Commerce and Cloud (+45% each), while traditional e-commerce declined and AI investments increased cash burn. Alibaba's investment case is shifting from mature e-commerce to high-margin cloud ambitions, targeting 20 GW data center power and 1 trillion RMB cloud revenue by 2032.
Seeking Alpha welcomed 38 new analysts in September 2026. This article showcases their top picks and investment strategies. Highlighted companies include Qualcomm, Teladoc, and NewLake Capital Partners, as well as the ETF TDAQ, each with a detailed investment thesis. We invite you all to engage with our new contributing analysts, explore their diverse investment theses, and consider following up on the highlighted stock ideas.
Lin Junyang stepped down from Alibaba's Qwen AI division amid explosive app growth and the launch of new Qwen 3.5 models.