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Municipal bonds are back to offer compelling risk-adjusted opportunities, but future decisions from Washington can either act as a tailwind or headwind. Municipal bond funds saw net inflows during 2024, first annual inflow since 2021—which was a record year. 2024 was a record year in municipal bond issuance. With attractive yields, the market may start to pay more attention to tax-equivalent yield advantages offered through municipal debt.
Specific to the muni market, perhaps the biggest surprise this year has been new issue supply that is running well ahead of expectations, up roughly 40% from last year. We think this increased summer issuance is likely the result of deals getting pulled forward, as issuers may be cautious about coming to market later in the fall ahead of what is likely to be an uncertain U.S. political climate. While municipal credit quality has already peaked, it is entering this period of moderating economic growth from a position of strength.
The Federal Reserve standing pat on interest rates for the time being leaves the window open for fixed income investors to take advantage of current yields. That also includes muni bond exposure, but investors may want to take advantage before that proverbial window shuts.
The anticipation of lower interest rates in the new year could bring a flash flood of new municipal bond issuance, according to Bond Buyer. If yields continue to fall and bond prices rise, it might be an opportune time to get muni bond exposure via two ETFs from American Century.
History tends to repeat itself and if that's the case in the current economic environment, then investors may want to side with muni bonds. American Century offers a pair of attractive, low-cost exchange traded fund options that allow for this exposure.
Fixed income ETFs continue to gain in popularity, but not all investors are taking the same approach. For all of them, though, it is important to think about what advantages ETFs offer to client portfolios.
Count municipal bonds among the fixed income assets that are rebounding in the early stages of 2023. Fortunately for advisors and investors, municipal bonds' gains to start this year are modest and yields remain elevated, indicating there's plenty of potential upside ahead for this asset class.
Active fixed-income ETFs allow portfolio managers to stay nimble and avoid sectors and parts of the credit spectrum that might encounter increased stress. There are now a growing number of dividend ETFs that are focused on yield and offer responsiveness to evolving sector dynamics of the broader market.
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