No Longer Early: SpaceX is going public at a staggering $1.77 trillion valuation, making it the 8th most valuable company in the world (ahead of Tesla). Unlike early Tesla investors who bought in at a $20B–$50B valuation, the massive wealth creation here has already occurred in the private markets.

The "Exit Liquidity" Risk: The initial public float is tiny—only 4% to 5% of total shares outstanding are actively trading. While this scarce supply might turn the first few weeks into an absolute "casino" (potentially pushing it to $3T), early investors and employees will soon look to cash out.

The Lockup Expiration Clock: Elon Musk is locked up for 366 days, but insiders and employees can sell 20% of their eligible shares just 1 to 2 months post-IPO, followed by an additional 7% at multiple subsequent milestones. When that supply hits the market, expect a correction.

Astronomical Multiples: For the full year 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in total revenue. At its current IPO price, it is trading at a wild 94 times trailing sales—not earnings, just top-line revenue.

The Revenue Breakdown: In 2025, Starlink brought in $11.4 billion (61%), Space Launch/Government contracts did $4 billion, and the newly integrated xAI/X ecosystem generated $3.2 billion. Q1 2026 showed a solid 15% year-over-year growth at $4.7 billion, but the current price demands absolute perfection.

Massive Compute Deals: SpaceX is quickly morphing from a rocket company into an AI infrastructure giant. By renting out its built-out xAI compute, it secured an incredible $1.25 billion/month deal with Anthropic and a $920 million/month deal with Google.

Annualized AI Run Rate: These two mega-contracts represent a combined $26 billion annualized run rate, which is already a larger annualized business than SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue.

Orbital Data Centers: The ultimate long-term thesis relies on Musk’s vision of space-based orbital data centers—mesh networks of simplified AI satellites powered by massive solar arrays. Elon claims that by 2030, SpaceX will launch more compute into space annually than currently exists on Earth.

Embrace Patience: I am a big believer in betting on world-class founders, and I easily see SpaceX becoming a $10 trillion company in 10 to 15 years. However, paying the massive "Elon premium" on day one is a dangerous game.

Waiting for the Crash: I predict that within 6 to 12 months, as insider lockups expire and the space data center timeline settles into reality, the stock could plummet by 50%, resetting to a ~$1 trillion valuation.

The Opportunity: Just like my strategy with Tesla, I'm letting the initial hype burn out. I'll step in and aggressively accumulate shares once the inevitable post-IPO crash occurs.

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