Happy Monday,
I hope you had a great Independence Day weekend. I’m an American and proud to be so. This year, we celebrate the 250th anniversary of our experiment in self-government. Despite all the negativity you may see in the media, it’s been a miraculous success by any reasonable judge.
To mark America 250, I’ve been revisiting some classic insights from Warren Buffett on why you should never bet against America.
The Key Story
Never Bet Against America
1. The Greatest Success Story in History
Explosive GDP Growth: In 1790, the U.S. had a population of less than 4 million people compared to 290 million in China. Just over 215 years later, that small pool of innovation grew to command roughly 30% of the world's GDP.
Rising Standard of Living: In Buffett's own lifetime, U.S. GDP per capita has grown 6-for-1. Today, the average American lives better than John D. Rockefeller Sr.—the richest person in the world during Buffett's youth.
Generational Progress: Despite cyclical fears, the basic economics and technological innovation of the country ensure that your children and grandchildren will continue to live better than the generations before them.
2. Tuning Out Political and Macro Panic
Bipartisan Resilience: Since Buffett bought his first stock at age 11, he has lived under 14 U.S. presidents—split exactly down the middle with 7 Republicans and 7 Democrats. Through assassinations, resignations, and recessions, the country moved forward.
Surviving Any Crisis: America has progressed through a Civil War, World War II, the Cuban Missile Crisis, 9/11, and the 2008 Financial Crisis.
The "World is Ending" Fallacy: After every election, half the country feels like the world is coming to an end. Buffett recalls his father-in-law warning him in 1952 that he would fail because the Democrats were taking over. Buffett ignored the political commentary, kept buying stocks, and thrived under both parties.
3. The Ultimate Birth Lottery
The Best Time and Place: If you could choose one time and one place to be born—without knowing your gender, race, intelligence, or unique talents ahead of time—you would choose America today.
A Beacon for Capital: Since George Washington took the oath of office, people from all over the world have consistently wanted to come here because our system uniquely rewards resilience and enterprise.
The Investor's Takeaway
Betting against America is a bet against human ingenuity. It’s betting against the human beings that work every day to drive the world forward.
When you invest in high-quality, cash-flowing businesses, you are fundamentally buying a slice of this resilient American engine. The market will always move in fits and starts, but betting against long-term human ingenuity and American compounding has historically been a losing proposition.
How did you like today’s newsletter?
📅 Keep Investing. Stay informed.
– Zach
Founder, Dividend Data
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Disclaimer: Dividend Dividend (Dividend Data LLC) is not a professional financial service. All materials released from Dividend Data (Dividend Data LLC) are for educational and entertainment purposes. Dividend Data (Dividend Data LLC) is not a replacement for a professional's opinion. Contributors to the Dividend Data (Dividend Data LLC) might have equities mentioned in the newsletter