Forecast and Retirement Planning

Two Pro tabs look forward instead of back. Both are models, and we frame them that way — useful for building intuition, never a promise.

The Forecast Tab: Dividend Snowball Scenarios

The Forecast tab projects how your dividend income and portfolio value could compound over the years ahead.

It starts from your real numbers — current value and current annual income are prefilled from your portfolio, and everything is editable. You set the assumptions: growth rates, monthly contributions, a time horizon, income goals, and a tax rate if your dividends are taxed.

The chart draws four scenarios side by side: a base case on your assumptions, the same case with your contributions added (usually the most eye-opening line — steady contributions dominate early compounding), and bear and bull variants that bracket the base case. A year-by-year table underneath shows the value and income behind every line.

The Retirement Tab: Monte Carlo Odds

The Retirement tab asks a harder question: *if I retire in year X and spend Y, how often does this portfolio hold up?*

You set your retirement year, planned spending, and the income floors you care about. The model then runs thousands of simulated market paths, resampled from real market history since 2000 — including its crashes — rather than assuming smooth average returns. The results render as fan charts for portfolio value and income (the range of outcomes, not one line), tiles showing how often the portfolio falls below your floors, and stress tests against historically bad sequences. A method card on the tab explains exactly how the simulation works.

Projections, Not Advice

An honest word about both tabs: they are arithmetic on assumptions, not predictions. Small changes in a growth rate compound into large differences over decades, and no simulation knows what markets will do. The Retirement tab deliberately reports coarse odds and ranges — you will never see a "you're on track" verdict, because no tool can honestly give one. Nothing here is personalized financial advice; treat the outputs as a way to reason about ranges and trade-offs.

Both tabs are Pro. On a free account you'll see a locked preview of each — plans are compared in Plans, Pricing, and What Pro Unlocks.