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Don't panic, but the market looks expensive, with the S&P 500 hovering near all-time highs. It has been here many times before.
Q2 '26 S&P 500 EPS growth is currently estimated to be 53%, until the Anthropic non-operating mark-ups are removed from Alphabet and Amazon, which reduces the growth to a still-quite robust 34.9% for Q2 '26. The forward P/E is still 20x down from 23x in early January '26. Remarkably, the S&P 500 “earnings yield” ended last week at 4.97%, still hovering around 5% - a yield level which drove a strong S&P 500 rally in early March '26. The rising 10-year Treasury yield is still below the 4.80% recent high and the 4.998% peak in late '23, after the FOMC rate hikes. A trade above 5% for the 10-year Treasury yield will likely have a marked impact on stocks.
The S&P 500 enters the shortened Labor Day trading week with an uncomfortable nine-year record.The index fell on the first trading day after Labor Day every yea
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According to one metric, the S&P 500 is the most expensive it's been since the dot-com bubble.
Given that the economy's moving parts, policymakers' decisions, and investor behavior are seemingly consistent, it's reasonable to assume most of them more or less mirror one another. And it's true that while no two bull markets are exactly the same, certainly many of them are similar.