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Since 1950, the S&P 500 has climbed from the end of October to the end of April in 58 of 76 years, with an average gain of around 7%. The May-to-October stretch averaged a gain of around 2% across the same years.
The S&P 500 index has delivered average annual returns of almost 10% for the past 98 years. Research from Schwab found that investing as early as possible (“time in the market”) delivered results nearly as good as perfect market timing (which is impossible).
Bear markets tend to be quick and painful, lasting less than a year. However, there is good reason to believe a market crash is not imminent.
There's a reason the index hasn't moved much since June, according to a team at UBS.
I typically don't begin these commentaries with a chart.
The S&P 500 is up around 12% so far in 2026. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon make up about 15% of the index.
The S&P 500 (SPX) will reach 8,100 by the end of the year, says Scott Wren, who remains bullish on the index despite caution on the state of the energy trade. He expects crude oil prices to come down on an eventual downturn in U.S.-Iran tensions.
The S&P 500 is at a technical inflection point, with near-term direction hinging on next week's price action and macro events. Key support levels for SPX are 7,620 and 7,504; a weekly close above 7,650 could trigger a November rally targeting new highs near 8,000.