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Hyperscaler capex is expected to reach roughly $638 billion in 2026, up about 78% from 2025, putting growing pressure on free cash flow and balance sheets. The key risk is not that AI spending collapses, but that capex growth simply slows.
The AI memory shortage that began squeezing hyperscaler supply chains in 2025 has now entered its second calendar year, with Micron Technology guiding fiscal Q4 2026 revenue to roughly $50 billion and HBM4 qualification samples still rationed among lead customers.
Three years into the artificial intelligence buildout, hyperscaler spending has carried semiconductors from a cyclical play to the highest-beta vehicle in the equity market.
The Commerce Department's $2 billion in planned CHIPS R&D funding for nine quantum companies, announced in May, gave the quantum computing trade something it lacked for a decade: a federal balance sheet behind it.
Designed to provide broad exposure to the Technology - Semiconductors segment of the equity market, the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXQ) is a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on June 11, 2021.
Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXQ) has roughly doubled this year, and that single fact is the reason to slow down rather than chase.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is more top-heavy and allocates the most to mega-caps. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is more spread out to smaller companies, but is one of the more expensive choices.
The Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXQ) has emerged as one of the cleanest, lowest-cost vehicles for direct semiconductor exposure during the AI capex cycle.