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Surging oil prices and hotter inflation reports reignited rate-hike concerns, sending Treasury yields to one-year highs as the Iran conflict remained stalemated despite the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit.
U.S. equity markets advanced for a fifth straight week - their longest winning streak since 2024 - as strong earnings, resilient data, and hopes for lasting Iran peace fueled optimism. Investors looked through another oil-price surge and inflationary pressure, focusing instead on corporate resilience and economic strength despite a complex macro backdrop shaped by geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The Fed held rates steady in an unusually fractured 8-4 vote, while Powell's plan to remain on the Board broke precedent and raised politically charged succession questions.
Year-to-date returns across the REIT market varied remarkably, with large gains from non-U.S. REITs and U.S. healthcare REITs, while U.S. residential and data center sectors were notable laggards. In the last three years, there have been two major forces impacting the performance of equity markets and real estate. Today's public REIT market looks a lot different than what most investors expect. Sectors previously considered niche have grown to be essential in today's economy and society.
Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies. One step forward, one back: Matching the stubborn performance pattern seen last year, REITs rallied ahead of the Fed's September rate cut but stumbled into the start of earnings season. In this report, we focus specifically on property-level fundamentals, previewing and forecasting REIT earnings performance based on an analysis of recent indicators across various sources.
For nearly five decades, US REITs have delivered stronger returns than broad US stocks in the 12 months following Federal Reserve easing cycles. Rate cuts may increase the attractiveness of REIT dividends, potentially making them a compelling option for investors seeking yield potential and portfolio diversification. Data centers, telecom infrastructure, and health care REITs have historically benefited the most from lower rates due to long-duration leases and capital-intensive models.
REITs performed very well in August (+5.48%), almost pulling the REIT sector's year-to-date total return back into the black (-1.11%). Small cap (+7.52%) and mid cap REITs (+7.13%) averaged strong gains in August while large caps (+3.16%) and micro caps (+0.87%) averaged more modest returns. 83.87% of REIT securities had a positive total return in August.
U.S. equity markets pushed higher this past week - while short-term benchmark interest rates plunged to three-year lows - after employment data provided decisive evidence of cooling labor markets. Viewed by markets as a "Goldilocks" set of reports, the reports showed slowing - but still positive - job growth in August alongside consistent evidence of cooling wage pressures and emerging slack. A notable milestone after several years of ultra-tight labor markets, the number of job seekers surpassed the number of available job openings for the first time since April 2021.
A surprising solid REIT earnings season wrapped up this week. Of the 100 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 62% raised their outlook - above the historical 55% average. Disinflation was a surprisingly common thread across second-quarter results, with the majority of the upside revisions being driven by improved expense expectations - the highest quantity of expense reductions ever. Healthcare REITs were notable upside standouts as senior housing fundamentals remained stellar, while skilled nursing REITs received some good news on the policy front via healthy CMS Medicare rate increases.