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Surging oil prices and hotter inflation reports reignited rate-hike concerns, sending Treasury yields to one-year highs as the Iran conflict remained stalemated despite the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit.
U.S. equity markets advanced for a fifth straight week - their longest winning streak since 2024 - as strong earnings, resilient data, and hopes for lasting Iran peace fueled optimism. Investors looked through another oil-price surge and inflationary pressure, focusing instead on corporate resilience and economic strength despite a complex macro backdrop shaped by geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The Fed held rates steady in an unusually fractured 8-4 vote, while Powell's plan to remain on the Board broke precedent and raised politically charged succession questions.
The REIT sector closed out 2025 with a tough December (-1.48%) and finishing the year with a -3.57% total return for 2025. Small caps (+0.51%) eked out a small gain in December, while mid caps (-1.77%), large caps (-2.55%) and micro caps (-3.88%) fell at the close of the year. 42.04% of REIT securities had a positive total return in December with only 38.36% in the black for the full year.
Despite recent price declines, REITs' future value has increased due to higher rental rates, increased property values, and reduced competing supply. Higher market demanded returns have steepened the slope, causing REIT prices to drop despite improved fundamentals and future value. The price drop is driven by higher expected returns, not impaired future value, making current REIT valuations a buying opportunity.
Real estate investment spreads are healthier today with higher cap rates and cost of capital, enhancing long-term returns despite similar nominal spreads. Higher cap rates lead to more accretive organic growth, reinvestment, dividends, debt reduction, and buybacks compared to the low-rate environment of early 2022. The current 8% cap rate and 6% cost of capital environment are more favorable for REITs than the previous 6% and 4% scenarios.
REITs achieved their 5th straight month in the black with a +3.09% average total return in September and +9.61% year to date. Mid-cap (+5.01%), large cap (+3.41%) and small cap REITs (+2.59%) averaged solid gains in September. Micro caps (-0.42%) again averaged a negative total return. 72.3% of REIT securities had a positive total return in September.
For income-focused investors willing to venture outside the United States, Canadian REITs offer appealing qualities as a potential portfolio diversifier alongside their larger and more established U.S. peers. Canadian REITs, on average, offer higher monthly dividend yields and trade at lower P/FFO multiples compared to their U.S. counterparts, but typically have weaker balance sheets with higher debt ratios. In this report, we take a quick look at 30 Canadian REITs and break down the industry on a sector-by-sector level. We also take a deep dive into H&R REIT.
The REIT sector continued to recover in June with a +1.12% average total return, but closed out the first half of the year in the red (-3.86%). Micro cap REITs (-3.79%) averaged a negative total return in June, but small caps (+1.01%), mid-caps (+2.29%) and large caps (+2.88%) finished in the black. 65.58% of REIT securities had a positive total return in June.