Loading…
Loading…
We think the Fed has time to assess the impact of tariffs, and we expect it to wait to cut rates until the data show that tariffs are impacting the real economy. So far, there are no signs of recession in the hard data. The tariff pause offers the possibility to avoid worst-case economic scenarios before the damage is crystalized. We believe technical factors will continue to drive market dislocations in spreads and sectors, and that active managers can navigate this more effectively.
M&A was almost dormant in 2023. In the US, as a proportion of the market value of the benchmark equity indices, it fell to its lowest level in 20 years, according to McKinsey. Credit investors are not traditionally supposed to be fans of M&A, and it's true we are wary of leveraging M&A, where debt is loaded onto balance sheets to buy competitors. We are seeing a comeback for M&A that we think is likely to continue through 2024.
As the Fed continues to hike interest rates to curb inflation, the corporate bond market is experiencing an increase in default rates.
Market participants are fearing a recession in 2023. Is the fear exaggerated?
Per Goldman Sachs, 2023 bond yields will surpass stock dividends. Should you tap bond ETFs for 2023?
The Fed will continue to hike rates to tame inflation. This may slower economic growth and result in stagflation.
The market is rife with high inflation risks and lower growth, meaning a stagflationary scenario for the most developed economies, including the United States.
Goldman Sachs says that stagflation has reached the economy. Here's is how to save your ETF portfolio from stagflation.