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India's top information technology companies are expected to report another subdued quarter, as AI-driven pricing pressure, weak client spending, and global geopolitical turmoil continue to weigh on growth, nine brokerages said.
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has surged over 50% but now faces high concentration risk in East Asian semiconductor stocks. I emphasize the iShares India 50 ETF (INDY) as a diversifier, given its inverse correlation to EEM and exposure to India's domestic growth drivers. INDY stands to benefit from easing oil prices, AI adoption in financials, and structural reforms, supporting its premium valuation versus EEM.
Shares of Indian banks rose more than 1% on Tuesday, making them the top-performing sectoral gainers after the Reserve Bank of India issued detailed guidelines for a concessional foreign exchange swap facility that lenders can use for overseas borrowings. The move forms part of a broader package of measures announced by the central bank to attract foreign capital into the country at a time when India's economy is facing growth and inflation challenges.
Aggressive buy-sell dollar/rupee swap operations by the Reserve Bank of India over the past 10 days have pushed foreign exchange hedging costs to their lowest levels in two months, while contributing to a recovery in the rupee ahead of a closely watched monetary policy decision. One-year hedging costs have fallen sharply from a mid-May peak of 3.50% to 2.92%.
Brokerage firm Bernstein has retained its "Neutral" stance on Indian equities and maintained its year-end Nifty 50 target of 26,000, implying an upside of around 10% from Friday's closing levels. However, the brokerage cautioned that a combination of weak macroeconomic conditions, earnings downgrades and a revival in equity issuance activity could limit gains even if markets receive a near-term boost from easing geopolitical tensions.
India is likely to see below-average monsoon rains for the first time in three years in 2026, the government said on Friday, stoking concerns over farm output and growth in Asia's third-largest economy.
The Reserve Bank of India's three-year dollar/rupee buy-sell swap auction received strong investor demand on Tuesday, with total bids reaching nearly $10 billion, almost double the size of the auction. The central bank accepted 141 bids in the foreign exchange swap auction, while receiving a total of 254 bids worth $9.8 billion.
James Thom, Senior Investment Director of Asia Equities at Aberdeen Investments, doesn't believe that the current weakness in the Indian rupee is a repeat of 2013 'taper tantrum' scenario. He adds that some level of government intervention is needed to shore up investor confidence in the country's currency and equity markets.