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Holding IGEB is justified by a favorable macro narrative: rate cuts, liquidity injections, and a resilient economy support stable credit spreads and attractive carry. IGEB offers a 4.86% yield with a BBB-heavy portfolio, emphasizing carry over price appreciation and moderate sensitivity to credit spreads. Fed rate cuts and signals of further easing, alongside liquidity injections, reinforce the case for holding IGEB for stable income.
Income ETFs in different shapes and sizes, with different characteristics. Some are riskier than others, some more diversified, some should perform particularly well when rates rise, and vice versa. Some are well-rounded choices, with no significant downsides, lots of benefits.
IGEB is an investment-grade bond ETF. The ETF targets bonds with above-average yields, below-average risk, trying to hold overall volatility constant. IGEB sports a 4.9% dividend yield and has outperformed its benchmark since inception, with comparable risk and volatility.
We think the Fed has time to assess the impact of tariffs, and we expect it to wait to cut rates until the data show that tariffs are impacting the real economy. So far, there are no signs of recession in the hard data. The tariff pause offers the possibility to avoid worst-case economic scenarios before the damage is crystalized. We believe technical factors will continue to drive market dislocations in spreads and sectors, and that active managers can navigate this more effectively.
The iShares Investment Grade Systematic Bond ETF offers a systematic strategy for selecting investment-grade corporate bonds, focusing on credit quality and risk-adjusted yields. IGEB has a lower duration than LQD, resulting in less volatility and better performance when interest rates rise, but takes on more credit risk. Despite IGEB's marginal outperformance, current macro conditions with historically tight IG spreads make it an unattractive buy at this time.
The largest bond ETFs are almost exclusively index funds focusing on the broader bond market, or on specific bond sub-asset classes. These ETFs are reasonable investments, but investors can do much better than reasonable. Lots of ETFs offer higher yields, returns, and risk-adjusted returns than these larger ETFs, with extra advantages to boot.
The BlackRock Target Allocation Team, which runs model portfolios followed by many advisors, turned even more bullish this week. Indeed, the current allocation to stocks is the highest it has been since 2021.
M&A was almost dormant in 2023. In the US, as a proportion of the market value of the benchmark equity indices, it fell to its lowest level in 20 years, according to McKinsey. Credit investors are not traditionally supposed to be fans of M&A, and it's true we are wary of leveraging M&A, where debt is loaded onto balance sheets to buy competitors. We are seeing a comeback for M&A that we think is likely to continue through 2024.