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Surging oil prices and hotter inflation reports reignited rate-hike concerns, sending Treasury yields to one-year highs as the Iran conflict remained stalemated despite the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit.
U.S. equity markets advanced for a fifth straight week - their longest winning streak since 2024 - as strong earnings, resilient data, and hopes for lasting Iran peace fueled optimism. Investors looked through another oil-price surge and inflationary pressure, focusing instead on corporate resilience and economic strength despite a complex macro backdrop shaped by geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The Fed held rates steady in an unusually fractured 8-4 vote, while Powell's plan to remain on the Board broke precedent and raised politically charged succession questions.
Three years of persistent rate-driven pressure on the residential and commercial real estate market appears to finally be abating - and not a moment too soon. REITs were hit by a "triple whammy" of rate-related headwinds: higher borrowing costs directly squeezed profitability, eroded the relative appeal of REIT dividends, and made it near-impossible to grow accretively. Since the Fed's initial rate hike in March 2022, REITs have lagged the S&P 500 by a whopping 55 percentage points, nearly 3x the magnitude of underperformance seen in the GFC.
For income-focused investors willing to venture outside the United States, Canadian REITs offer appealing qualities as a potential portfolio diversifier alongside their larger and more established U.S. peers. Canadian REITs, on average, offer higher monthly dividend yields and trade at lower P/FFO multiples compared to their U.S. counterparts, but typically have weaker balance sheets with higher debt ratios. In this report, we take a quick look at 30 Canadian REITs and break down the industry on a sector-by-sector level. We also take a deep dive into H&R REIT.
REIT index performance can be a leading indicator for the asset class as a whole. Our latest Asset Allocation recorded a strong quarter for listed real estate, showing signs of long-awaited resurgence. REITs send encouraging signals. A deeper analysis of sectoral returns since the Great Financial Crisis reveals no clear pattern, vindicating broad sectoral exposure.
No slowdown here. After the worst year of performance on record in 2022, Industrial REITs have rebounded this year after earnings results showed a surprising re-strengthening of property-level fundamentals. Recent earnings results showed that demand continues to substantially outpace available supply. Rent growth reaccelerated in early-2023, with rental spreads averaging over 40%, while occupancy rates climbed to fresh record.
Storage REITs are the best-performing property sector this year after lagging in late 2022, lifted by surprisingly solid earnings results and a thawing of the previously icy-cold housing market. Storage demand is driven largely by housing activity – specifically, home sales and rental market turnover - and the recent moderation in mortgage rates has eased concern of a deepening housing recession.
Apartment REITs were the second-worst-performing property sector in 2022 - barely outperforming the troubled office sector - despite delivering a record year of operating performance highlighted by 20% FFO growth. Following two years of historic rent growth, there is little doubt that growth will moderate over the coming quarters. Market consensus sees a "hard landing" with rising vacancies and declining rents.