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The artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor trades are garnering plenty of limelight this year and when investors evaluate those themes relating to ex-US equities, their attention largely shifts to China, South Korea and Taiwan. However, there's another Asia-Pacific dynamo on the AI front, and it's a familiar one: Japan.
South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei 225 led a broad Asian selloff on Friday as oil surged above $108 a barrel and US bond yields moved dangerously close to 5%, reviving concerns that inflation could force central banks to tighten further. The KOSPI dropped more than 2.5%, extending Thursday's weakness, while the Nikkei 225 tumbled about 2.8%.
Mahjabeen Zaman from ANZ Bank thinks the BOJ will hike rates by 25 bps in its upcoming meeting, but it will be difficult for the BOJ to be more hawkish than other central banks due to fiscal difficulties, which might be disappointing to people who want the yen to strengthen more.
The yen's surge may be signaling something much bigger than another carry-trade scare: the price of Japanese capital is changing. For the first time in decades, rising JGB yields are making it increasingly rational for Japanese investors to keep more money at home.
The Bank of Japan is leaning toward raising its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point this month in response to upward price risks, while leaving open the possibility of accelerating the pace of hikes thereafter, according to people familiar with the matter. Bloomberg's Skylar Montgomery Koning has more.
The Nikkei 225 Index continued its strong downward spiral, reaching its lowest level since August 5 this year, and 11.80% from its highest point this year. This retreat happened as the US-Iran tensions and Japan's bond yields continued the bull run.
The recent coordinated effort by U.S. and Japanese monetary authorities to prop up the sagging yen understandably rattled global markets. While critics claim that the positive effects of the US/Japan “salvation” effort were short-lived, Japanese equities aren't worse for wear.
The overnight index swaps market is pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a rate increase at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting.