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As a selloff in French government bonds deepens, the region's debt-laden economies risk a surge in borrowing costs while also grappling with increasing social unrest.
France faces a severe fiscal, debt, and political crisis, with its 10Y bond yield surging to ~5%, the highest since 2002. The deficit/GDP ratio remains far above the EU's 3% threshold, with public debt projected to reach 118% of GDP by 2026.
IMF expects at least one more 25 bps ECB rate hike in 2026
What's happening in France is staying in France bond-wise for now. That's a good thing.
Amin Nasser says ‘system is already straining' and ‘replenishing inventories could take up to two years'
Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, says European stocks have remained resilient and have "done rather well" in the face of inflationary pressures and rising bond yields. He also comments on French bond yields.
Businesses and consumers across the eurozone grew slightly more pessimistic about the economy in September.
The iShares MSCI Spain ETF offers U.S. investors concentrated exposure to Spanish equities at a discounted 16x P/E and a 2.7% yield. EWP is heavily weighted in financials and utilities, with Santander, BBVA, and Iberdrola comprising nearly half of assets. Despite attractive valuation and yield, most top EWP holdings are rated 'Hold,' limiting near-term upside; I rate EWP as 'Hold.'