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The European Central Bank is set to raise borrowing costs for the second time since the start of the Iran war. The deposit rate will be lifted by a quarter-point to 2.5% on Thursday, according to all but one analyst in a Bloomberg poll.

The ECB is widely expected to raise its key interest rate on Thursday. Eurozone inflation hit 3.3% in August, with energy inflation spiking to 14.3%.

While nearly all observers anticipate a rate hike today, there is dissent among bond markets about the terminal rate for this tightening cycle from the ECB. Much depends on events in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices and inflation.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates again on September 10, taking its deposit rate to 2.50%. The decision itself is hardly controversial: all 65 economists surveyed by Reuters between August 31 and September 3 predicted a 25-basis-point increase.

Deutsche Bank now expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December in addition to a September hike, as persistent energy risks keep pressure on the inflation outlook.