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Chinese companies are being encouraged to return cash to shareholders - and are finding good reasons to do so. Regulators are encouraging companies to focus on shareholder returns, and changing macroeconomic conditions are making it easier for Chinese companies to pay dividends. Given the risks, we think an active investing approach is especially important when investing in high-dividend Chinese stocks.
The latest figures published by the People's Bank of China show that credit and liquidity are stalling as demand for new loans declines. Deteriorating confidence in China's prospects explains why households prefer paying down debts while companies borrow less.
Data came in generally in line or slightly weaker than forecasts, as weak confidence continued to depress investment and consumption. New home prices fell by -0.65% MoM in July, compared to a -0.67% MoM drop in June.
The People's Bank of China kept the one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged at 2.5% today, in line with market expectations. We believe that in conjunction with today's data releases and the start of rate cuts in other central banks such as the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada, the odds of a PBoC rate cut in the coming months have risen.
Last week was a busy one for ETFs, with nine new ETFs launching on the first day of the week alone. Calamos, Innovator, AllianzIM, Direxion, Global X and ProShares were among the issuers rolling out new funds.
Key economic indicators are mixed in China and, in fact, were mostly weaker than expected last month. So, policymakers are now stepping up support for the property sector in particular.
China's near-term challenges and long-term uncertainties are plentiful, but the widespread pessimism towards the Chinese economy and markets feels excessive.
The PBOC held the 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate at 2.5% in March. The PBOC remains on a dovish tilt, but depreciation pressure on the RMB limits room for monetary easing in China before global central banks start to cut rates.