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BXSL shared even more negative signs that suggest the upcoming dividend cut. Even the management mentioned a transition to lower dividend levels. I expect a dividend reset in 2026, which will likely result in a valuation pullback.
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund offers a compelling high-income opportunity, supported by a $13.4B portfolio with 96.8% first-lien secured debt. BXSL's diversified portfolio, improving borrower health, and declining nonaccruals underpin downside protection and attractive risk-adjusted returns. At a 0.96x price-to-NAV and 12.6% yield, expectations for a dividend cut appear priced in.
The BDC sector thrived post-COVID as low rates and strong underwriting supported robust dividends and performance. Rising rates initially sparked default fears, but BDCs benefited from higher coupons and stable funding costs, with limited non-accrual uptick. Since early 2025, most BDCs have cut dividends, and total returns now barely match inflation or T-bill rates.
Part 1 of this article compares Blackstone Secured Lending's recent quarterly change in NAV, quarterly and trailing 24-month economic return, NII, and current valuation to 11 BDC peers. Part 1 also performs a comparative analysis between each company's investment portfolio as of 3/31/2026 and 6/30/2026. This includes an updated percentage of investments on non-accrual status. I also provide a list of the other BDC stocks I currently believe are undervalued (a buy recommendation), overvalued (a sell recommendation), or appropriately valued (a hold recommendation).
From a technical perspective, Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL) is looking like an interesting pick, as it just reached a key level of support. BXSL recently overtook the 200-day moving average, and this suggests a long-term bullish trend.
Business Development Companies (BDCs) offer high yields but carry significant, often overlooked risks tied to their underlying leveraged loan portfolios. Negative asymmetry in BDCs arises from management fee structures, which erode upside while exposing investors to nearly all downside, justifying persistent NAV discounts. Investors frequently misjudge BDC discounts, expecting P/NAV convergence, but structural risks and poor track records often warrant these discounts.
The lion's share of BDC players has cut their dividends in the past 12-month period (especially, if we count in supplemental payments). For most BDCs that haven't done that yet, it is only a matter of time before they arrive at such a decision. Among these BDCs, we can also find so-called blue-chip BDCs that some investors view as truly durable income compounders.
Blackstone Secured Lending faces near-term headwinds, with sequential declines in earnings and dividend coverage falling below 100% for the first time in 28 quarters. Management signaled an imminent dividend cut, likely reducing the payout to $0.66–$0.70 per share to align with long-term earnings trends and lower base rates. Despite credit deterioration and a declining NAV, BXSL's 12%+ yield and 4% NAV discount remain attractive for income-focused investors seeking stable BDC exposure.
SEC filings for BXSL aren't indexed yet — common for recently launched funds. Browse the issuer's filings on SEC EDGAR directly.