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U.S. markets remained unsettled as cracks emerged in the AI investment boom, while another oil-price surge complicated the inflation outlook ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. Treasury yields fell for a third straight week as AI-related risk-off flows strengthened, with markets now assigning just 10% odds of an October hike despite still-elevated energy prices. REITs rallied for a third-straight week as earnings opened on an encouraging note: 15 REITs raised full-year FFO guidance, reinforcing the view that fundamentals remain healthier than recent price action.

Rate Shock: REITs enter earnings season on their back foot amid a renewed surge in long-term rates, facing a materially different cost-of-capital and financing environment than just three months ago. The rate surge is again stressing highly leveraged borrowers, particularly across private markets. Public REITs are better positioned, but remain exposed through refinancing, tenant credit, and equity valuations. Higher rates have brought an important silver lining: years of expensive capital are finally curbing construction, with shrinking pipelines beginning to support occupancy, rents, and landlord pricing power.

U.S. equities stumbled as AI-bubble concerns overwhelmed otherwise resilient fundamentals, while September inflation ran hot but remained heavily energy-driven, complicating the Fed's path without clearly forcing an October hike. Treasuries rallied sharply despite hotter CPI and PPI, with the 2-Year reversing from 4.95% to 4.71% as dovish Fed signals and risk-off flows pushed October hike odds. Oil reemerged as the key macro pressure point, with WTI surging above $100 as Saudi and Hormuz risks intensified, threatening to reverse recent relief in gasoline and diesel prices.

Surging oil prices and hotter inflation reports reignited rate-hike concerns, sending Treasury yields to one-year highs as the Iran conflict remained stalemated despite the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit.

U.S. equity markets advanced for a fifth straight week - their longest winning streak since 2024 - as strong earnings, resilient data, and hopes for lasting Iran peace fueled optimism. Investors looked through another oil-price surge and inflationary pressure, focusing instead on corporate resilience and economic strength despite a complex macro backdrop shaped by geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The Fed held rates steady in an unusually fractured 8-4 vote, while Powell's plan to remain on the Board broke precedent and raised politically charged succession questions.